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Author Topic: So what happens next, and are we ready?  (Read 760 times)
Mr.Tucker
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« on: March 24, 2021, 02:12:08 PM »

Not gonna lie fellow Bullpup Fanatics, things are nothing like I've ever seen before. Something about last year and the developments this year have everything out of balance. Feels like were all on a giant American bus with a different set of drivers who are about to roll it over, and get tossed around by jerking the wheel hard left. I expect things to get much much worse before they get better, at least that's what I'm mentally prepared to accept.

I know this is a super broad topic, and acutely political, but all things considered in regards to political agendas, our society (or what resembles it) and the general population, I really don't know what to expect in the next few years. I've made preparations as best I can, using what I've read or advice given, but this situation is unprecedented, at least in my lifetime, and it's difficult to know If we're actually ready as a family.

So I want to be prepared and seek advice or the experience of others in that regard. See how folks have prepared their household. Not to out anyone or ask for specifics on resources, since that's personal info, but in general what people have done.

Me for example, I have 4 in my household, we're out of debt as of this month, have at least 1 month of food storage and growing, enough arms and munitions for our needs, and field craft supplies, tools and materials to do without power, market place amenities or water for an extended period. I live in a tight knit community, but we rent our home.

Whatever comes next, I plan to be an asset to my neighbors and community in various ways, to include skilled tradecraft in various disciplines, not including typing freakishly long posts on forums.

We've already built strong relationships through work, community interactions and church over the past few years. My goal is to provide for my family, protect my family and help my fellow man. But, my perspective is limited, and I've been in Europe for the past 7 months on assignment watching things unfold from afar. Any thoughts, opinions, outlooks you have would be appreciated by not just me, but probably the group as a whole. All I get from the US in terms of status is what I can gather from the news, which is a terrible way to see the world, unless you want to be in a constant state of crisis and uncertainty.

This being a highly charged topic, I do plan to keep my comments civil and respectful, but if you need to vent....

Anyways, thanks.
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semper paratus
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« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2021, 03:56:44 PM »

well personally I think it's more than a few years off - maybe 10 to 15 -- the far left is creating militia groups to counter the far right groups -- any way I'm too old to care anymore - people just don't seem to want to compromise maybe they don't even know what it means -- I digress -- used to have a 120 acre place in south central MO and had a vehicle that could go 1200 miles on a tank of diesel -- but had to drive through St Louis to get there -- so that turned out to be a bad idea - last few years before selling it - I was heavily armed traveling through and never after dark --.

never thought it was important enough to have enough to start a war -- just needed enough to end it.  with the pandemic - should have opened peoples eyes about being prepared --- I still keep a yr supply of food - 2 months of water ( had a bad water scare a few years back) plus with the aging water lines it's a good idea.  look at texas and their water emergency.  I have solar kits for power and 4 generators all running on different types of fuel -- 3 types of heat generation -

this reminds me of the watts riots back in the 60's and will get that bad again - probably but again at least 10 years off -

what you need if you plan on staying put -- enough plywood - 3/4 inch - for every window on the first floor - door ways need to be set up like a tunnel - fire extinguishers - won't be a fire dept responding - distribute supplies in different locations inside the house but also have an Alamo to fall back to  I would not worry about mass revolt - a lot of these people are all talk - it's the water supply, power grid that are the real problem and no matter what you do - unless you have the land to be self sufficient - there is really nothing you can do -- refineries shut down - no fuel to transport the food, all these people buying electric cars - a joke - the power lines can not carry the load -- look again at texas - rolling blackouts --  you can only do so much for so long - ifn you live in a ruban setting - and a major problem happens - say goodbye

-- distribute some supplies throughout the house but keep a fall back position.  buckets of water and towels in each room - flash lights - matches - candles - night vision

personally like I said - too old for any of this crap any more - I have a nice wooden rocking chair to sit on the front porch, a deck of cards and  my USAS and T7 sitting next to me


« Last Edit: March 24, 2021, 04:00:26 PM by semper paratus » Logged
kfeltenberger
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« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2021, 07:22:32 PM »

Some of the first advice I was given when I started making sure that I had the bases covered was, "There is strength in numbers; network and find like minded people (not just goals, but socially, ethically, morally, etc. compatible) and start working together *now*.  It can be as simple as going to a state or national park and learning how to forage the native plant life for food, establishing lines of communication, whatever, but work on building that foundation now."

Could this spiral into civil violence?  Absolutely, anyone who tells you it hasn't isn't watching the news.  We're at that point.  What we need to do is keep it from getting worse.  The important thing is that when you talk to people about your views, be respectful and calm, do not get excited, animated, or anything that might make people step back; the goal is to build a bridge, not a moat. 
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Kurt
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« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2021, 06:19:08 AM »

Mmmm. Wishing I had a property and a homestead to enjoy. That porch and rocking chair sounds real good, far and away from the city. Our home is on a military base, if that gives you some idea of security posture and/or closeness to urbana, which it is.

I think what looms on the horizon, whether 10-15 years or this year, is an economic collapse or depression of some kind in the US, which can in turn, depending on where you live, precipitate civil unrest, upticks in crime, and the resulting scarcity of some (not all) resources.  The massively increasing dependency on government support through "COVID Relief" spending is concerning for me, but, I'm not an economics wiz, so I'm not sure how or where those Trillions come from, or what that means for inflation of the dollar, and it's potential collapse. Allots changed since the great depression, and I know that our financial institutions have come up with safeguards to prevent that, but....how can we keep spending like this and not have to foot the bill somehow later?

The Texas example you cited, which resulted from an ice storm, certainly exposed some factors that affect home living when a natural disaster hits, Water and heat being one of them, So I have some work to do on that front. Thankfully, jugs are cheap, and water is available where we are. As far as staying put, we're a few months shy of being re-assigned somewhere, and could potentially be sent to Korea as a family for 3 years....maybe not such a bad idea, except for the rowdy neighbors to the North, and our current 'posture' under Biden...

To your points Kb, I totally agree. Community and strength in numbers is key. Getting to know people and being a decent human being. Have you noticed a trend lately in our social discourse of any kind of....distancing? or.... Isolation?.....or Censorship? I can accept the fact that small communities and resulting neighborhoods are doing fine, more so true in rural communities and smaller towns where people are more interdependent. But in big cities? That's going to be very interesting to watch, and like you both said: See you guys later. I don't want to be anywhere near a major city when that goes downhill.
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7n6
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« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2021, 12:53:27 AM »

I don't even know how you begin to prep for societal collapse. 
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Mr.Tucker
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« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2021, 10:54:59 AM »

I guess that's really it. I doubt if there was a collapse, it would be so widespread, that every town, community or social construct falls apart. The depth of that collapse depends on how strong those social bonds and communities are.

If they're weak: Katrina.

If they're strong.....not sure I can think of an example off the top of my head where folks bounced back pretty well, and maybe that's a good indicator of how to prepare. Look at communities where disasters hit, and if it barely phased them, what were the factors that made them resilient.

Like they say in the military, no Plan survives first contact. You can have everything perfectly mapped out, every provision setup...etc. But Murphy gets a say, and other human beings/nature get their roll of the dice as well. I'd look to examples of people/cultures that constantly are in "contact" or have endured multiple social strains...and maybe they don't exist anymore because that's what it leads to. Or maybe they do.

Anyways. I guess.... Prepare for Social Collapse by building/integrating yourself into a social construct? That could be your own family, friends, neighbors, church...etc. Then ensure you have the means to provide for and protect that construct, whether in your home or as a collective force.

Being well provisioned and supplied is great, but if you're the lone wolf, those that are part of a larger group can just take it from you if they're so inclined and they have the numbers. Better to be part of a group, especially if that group is like minded and so prepared.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2021, 11:00:41 AM by Mr.Tucker » Logged
kfeltenberger
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« Reply #6 on: March 27, 2021, 08:11:59 PM »

If you are planning for "societal collapse", then you need to consider the long view.  You need to ensure that you have food, shelter, fuel (wood or petroleum depending on needs, but definitely something to burn for heat and cooking), and protection.  Ideally, you'd have additional people with you who are of similar mind and beliefs because you have to sleep sometime, you will be distracted tending your fields, etc.  Expect to return to a state of nature, ideally it wouldn't be that bad, but plan for the worst.

Look at where you are, where the population centers are, and then look at the road network and terrain topology.  Here in south central/southeast  PA, we have I-83 and I-81 running north/south, US RT-30, I-76, and I-79 running east/west among other roads (US 11 and US 15, to name two).  Look where those roads go and expect "refugees".  On topology, this part of the state has what looks like ripples (if you take a piece of cloth, and push it and it ripples, imagine that image in a general arc from the south west to north east and you have our area).  Lots of long valleys that will also channel refugees.  Now, measure out about 150- 350 miles from every city - that's the distance that they'll likely be able to drive barring clear roads and no stoppages.  Those routes are going to be hell on Earth.  From there, people will be on foot and likely fall prey to those of lesser morals in the coming days or to exposure/lack of food/disease.

That's the first couple days of a total collapse.  From there, it will get worse.  Unless you have solar, geothermal, wind, or some other sustainable source, your electricity will either be non-existent or severely limited until it's gone. 

Thus, the long view.

It will be Little House on the Prairie meets The Postman meets Mad Max. 
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Kurt
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« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2021, 01:11:07 AM »

*mimics Saviors Whistle sound*

Iíve been sitting on my tail for the past 3 weeks, catching up on TWD. I had never met Negan or his merry band of pricks till a couple weeks ago. Wow. I know itís just a TV show, but man. If groups like the Saviors are even remotely possible to form out a social collapse:

Thunder Dome.

So. Agreeing with KB that Ground Zero/high threat would be inside and the immediate surroundings of Population centers. Push 250-350 miles out: more or less safer areas, but require more stockpiling of resources for long term sustainment.

I suppose more remote areas would require constant vigilance as well, and a robust system for expulsion or assimilation of newcomers from population centers, and hereís why:  

For all the jacked up things he does in the show, Negan is dead nuts right that people are a resource. He abuses that resource, but, at least he recognizes its value. Taking in the right people is just as important as pushing away the wrong types.

Encounters with unknown parties would be less frequent in rural/non urban areas, which means thereís a tendency to become complacent or less covert in your day to day. Let your guard down, and the wrong someone or group happens to get lucky to find you...game over. So having a solid security posture, group communication/ command&control, and a system that aids in choosing who you build a relationship with  vs. who you donít, is pretty important.

For people who do live in populated areas, they will absolutely have more encounters with others than those in rural areas. Think social temperature. The closer and more tightly packed people are, the hotter things get. More encounters means more experience with violence/conflict between groups, which means the people involved kind of get that refiners fire type effect on those that survive, giving them more repetitions with such situations, which in turn sharpens their instincts and builds experience. They become more dangerous/adept compared to those who havenít had that exposure. Combine that experience with moral/social disposition (peacemakers vs. warmongers, and everything in between), and you get strong groups that can either make your day, or royally F up your chi, or both depending on YOUR disposition towards them, and if you have a tendency to make friends or push people off.

Societal collapse is not the time to be acquiring skills. Itís the time to use them, which means training in ďfair weatherĒ times, when you have more ability now to do that versus when the SHTF.

So. Training now means entering that situation with that much more skill/experience. I should say the Right kind of training. Learn to prepare game, forage for food, live off the land, cook food over an open fire and Dutch Oven, preserve meat, build shelters, rig electricity, harvest/purify water, store food, first aid and basic medical care, use a variety of weapons, use a variety of hand tools, physical fitness...and on and on. Thereís loads to train on, and there are plenty of classes. Having all these as a resource is great, but if you donít know how to use them, theyíre useless to you.

I agree to an extent with you KB, about loss of power and Ďgridí type support, be it electricity, running water...etc. Sure. Those folks may not show up to work for a little while, but it doesnít mean all the Civil/Mechanical/electrical engineers or skilled labor up and died off. I figure, probably 6months to a year would pass without consistent services mentioned, before the already built infrastructure is repaired/revitalized and/or setup on a smaller for scale by communities for their communities.

This is, of course, one giant thought experiment and I have no research or facts to back it up. But, like you said, at the end of the day, if you have those provisions and are prepared for a long haul, such losses would be that much more bearable, and you get lucky.

Luck is where Preparation and Opportunity meet.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2021, 01:38:48 AM by Mr.Tucker » Logged
7n6
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« Reply #8 on: July 21, 2021, 01:37:13 PM »

I don't ever see a full on collapse happening but I do see a gradual degradation of society until we reach third world nation status.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2021, 06:02:10 PM by 7n6 » Logged
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