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| | |-+  So it's time to consider the reality of the MDR project
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Author Topic: So it's time to consider the reality of the MDR project  (Read 7089 times)
Frostburg
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« on: April 16, 2017, 12:09:30 AM »

This thought has recently occurred to me. We are all waiting, and expecting more delays. Things arn't looking good. We are in the dark. We may be pleasantly surprised, but that could just be the denial talking.

I want to talk about the possibility that the MDR project might sink before it ever launches. Desert Tech may be facing some financial issues potentially, as well. What if after two more delays, DT posts an announcement sincerely apologizing, but the MDR will be "indefinitely delayed," as in being 'shelved?'

It could ruin Desert Tech and they may end up being bought up by another company. We know many people on this site have already canceled their orders, and probably many more who are not even on this site.

If the MDR gets canceled, they will never survive as a company under the same name.  They may be desperate trying to get the MDR finished, and they may be well aware of the dire situation they are now in. For them, it would be a complete catastrophe. 

At this point, I think this may very well be tangible reality.
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Glorfindel
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« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2017, 01:00:04 AM »

It's possible, but I don't think so. I'm pretty sure they could have been shipping rifles a year ago if they had a true "do or die" deadline. The rifles of last year may not have been all we hoped and dreamed of, but they would have avoided ruining the company. There are still delays and I'm expecting a few more, honestly, but I think the signs are there that it actually is pretty close now.
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SteveInAlaska
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« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2017, 03:47:47 AM »

At this point it may be financial versus an engineering issue, perhaps they are so over extended that they can't pay their bills to get the parts to get guns out.
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Slateman
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« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2017, 08:36:37 AM »

Then I have money for a B&T APC223
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reason
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« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2017, 08:46:52 AM »

I have started to worry about bankruptcy. With the loss of confidence in DT to the point that no one but the most ardent fanboy believes anything DT says, to the failure to even keep QnA deadlines..... It looks really bad. Hope that they cross the finish line with a great product so they can reconcile their missteps.
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INV136
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« Reply #5 on: April 16, 2017, 11:08:01 AM »

The MDR isn't the only rifle that Desert Tech's income is based on. They are already a successful company based on their bolt action rifles. This is a separate venture that shouldn't affect the company in a dire way resulting in bankruptcy as you wildly suggest. I guess you never heard of the Ares Defense Shrike project?

Ares Defense was an already established company like Desert Tech and they came up with a new project called the Shrike, for which they solicited pre-orders. Unlike DT, Ares requested $1,000 down for pre-order and $1,500 upon completion of the Shrike. Ares didn't deliver the Shrike until almost 10 years later. Many customers requested and got refunds of their $1,000 down payment. There were many delays for several (2 or 3) years. Then, all of a sudden, no more updates or word of delays. Almost complete silence. After waiting almost 10 years Ares started delivering Shrikes to a few customers at a  time. It took about 3-4 more months after initially deliveries started that I finally received my Shrike. Oh, and like the MDR, Ares raised the price of the Shrike for new orders. But, like the MDR, the pre-order customer's prices did not go up one cent.

I've been through this waiting/multiple delays thing before. It all worked out in the end as promised with no price increase for pre-order customers just like the MDR. I seriously doubt that the MDR will be delayed 10 years like the Shrike. I'm not whining and have patience.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2017, 11:09:34 AM by INV136 » Logged
Menace667
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« Reply #6 on: April 16, 2017, 11:14:32 AM »

if DT wanted money that badly I would think they could have just shipped the rifles sans ejection chute to get them into play and start extra revenue coming in by doing a sort of "soft launch". hell, for that matter they could have released almost ANYTHING as a version 1.0 after they had preorders in hand to justify keeping those dollars and reinvest them as opposed to holding out for a ideal finalized product knowing that delays would guarantee some returns... also, DT has been very open to those who are unhappy to get refunds so it doesn't seem that likely they are in financial straits. They have avoided any of the obvious signs of financial troubles so I would say not to worry.

Playing along though, there has been a lot of interest in the platform in the last couple years so IF they become insolvent and fold there are many companies who would probably pick up the patents on the MDR, rebrand it, and make a fortune as they have the larger manufacturing processes necessary to accomplish it in a short timeframe. Imagine the same rifle being made by Keltec, Remington, or even Colt... while quality and WC would be far less than what DT is known for, they could turn them out in quantity with a short lead time to tool up.

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INV136
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« Reply #7 on: April 16, 2017, 11:15:24 AM »

I have started to worry about bankruptcy. With the loss of confidence in DT to the point that no one but the most ardent fanboy believes anything DT says, to the failure to even keep QnA deadlines..... It looks really bad. Hope that they cross the finish line with a great product so they can reconcile their missteps.

You're worried about DT going into bankruptcy because people that buy their products are losing confidence in DT? Really? They have an established clientele based on their bolt action rifles. They don't need the MDR to stay in business because they're already established in business and I have never heard anything bad about their bolt action rifles that has caused any loss in confidence. Their bolt action rifles are their bread and butter. If you based this loss in confidence on something being wrong or defective in those bolt action rifles, then yes, you might have a point.
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« Reply #8 on: April 16, 2017, 12:49:09 PM »

I have started to worry about bankruptcy. With the loss of confidence in DT to the point that no one but the most ardent fanboy believes anything DT says, to the failure to even keep QnA deadlines..... It looks really bad. Hope that they cross the finish line with a great product so they can reconcile their missteps.

You're worried about DT going into bankruptcy because people that buy their products are losing confidence in DT? Really? They have an established clientele based on their bolt action rifles. They don't need the MDR to stay in business because they're already established in business and I have never heard anything bad about their bolt action rifles that has caused any loss in confidence. Their bolt action rifles are their bread and butter. If you based this loss in confidence on something being wrong or defective in those bolt action rifles, then yes, you might have a point.

I think the worry is that mishandling money internally at dt could have meant that the sales of their bolt.actions don't actually hold them.afloat anymore.
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HBeretta
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« Reply #9 on: April 16, 2017, 04:42:44 PM »

can't recall where i read it but their estimated yearly revenue is 10.5 million.  this might be a reasonable estimate which would mean all they'd need to do is push 1500-2000 precision rifles yearly if that depending on the build.  yeah marketing costs and so does new equipment but i find it unlikely they've hinged their business on a handful of prototypes.  let's not forget they distribute ammo as well.  sorry frostburg it was never reality to begin with and an unlikely scenario for them i believe.

the reality is...we really dont know what's going on at DT.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2017, 04:54:47 PM by HBeretta » Logged
reason
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« Reply #10 on: April 16, 2017, 06:39:00 PM »

INV136 said:

Quote
You're worried about DT going into bankruptcy because people that buy their products are losing confidence in DT? Really?

Not quite. My concern is that this lack of confidence will cause many to withdraw their preorders and in doing so place DT in a situation where they have lost their funding, as it were.

Quote
They have an established clientele based on their bolt action rifles. They don't need the MDR to stay in business because they're already established in business and I have never heard anything bad about their bolt action rifles that has caused any loss in confidence. Their bolt action rifles are their bread and butter. If you based this loss in confidence on something being wrong or defective in those bolt action rifles, then yes, you might have a point.

I doubt the number of people in the market for such high priced items. Without real numbers for their income to financing the MDR ratio, no one can be so sure as you would like on this. As for the notion that an established confindence in their bolt action rifles somehow would mitigate for their behaviour in regards to the MDR, that is a false equivalence. I say again, anyone excusing the business methods of DT with the MDR is simply a sycophant. Yes, I know there are a whole class of people who would take the behaviour of the Shrike debacle as a badge of honor but I consider that to be the type of actions that enable a company to think they can use whatever business methods they want and their loyal sycophants will take it.

I realize there are some people who think its tough to complain about complainers but for those who seek to not enable behavior they dont value, it is a virtue to not sanction such behavior...

« Last Edit: April 16, 2017, 06:45:15 PM by reason » Logged
kfeltenberger
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« Reply #11 on: April 16, 2017, 08:36:57 PM »

This thought has recently occurred to me. We are all waiting, and expecting more delays. Things arn't looking good. We are in the dark. We may be pleasantly surprised, but that could just be the denial talking.

I want to talk about the possibility that the MDR project might sink before it ever launches. Desert Tech may be facing some financial issues potentially, as well. What if after two more delays, DT posts an announcement sincerely apologizing, but the MDR will be "indefinitely delayed," as in being 'shelved?'

It could ruin Desert Tech and they may end up being bought up by another company. We know many people on this site have already canceled their orders, and probably many more who are not even on this site.

If the MDR gets canceled, they will never survive as a company under the same name.  They may be desperate trying to get the MDR finished, and they may be well aware of the dire situation they are now in. For them, it would be a complete catastrophe. 

At this point, I think this may very well be tangible reality.

Always with the negative waves, Moriarty, always with the negative waves...

https://youtu.be/0AEj3LA2vSo

Repeat after me:  Internet forums are not a valid mirror of the real world.

Just because a couple people have claimed they cancelled their order and then planted their flag in a forum and made sure that *everyone* was aware of what they did, does not mean that the same thing is happening in the real world.  I think things would be far worse for DT if they shipped 2000 rifles and then discovered a defect that required a total recall of all units shipped than waiting until things work as they want them to and then shipping the rifle.  Do you remember IWI's original Galil ACE pistol that had to be recalled - every one of them - because of a freaking hole in the receiver?  That had to be done on IWI's dime - return shipment (~$25/unit), the cost of the new receiver and the labor to rebuild the firearm, and then the cost to ship it back to the owner (~$25/unit).  If they shipped 1000 units, the shipping alone is ~$50,000.  Then add in the cost of the labor and new receivers and anything else they had to do, and then all the BS ATF oversight and approval, and what was a very avoidable issue turned into a colossal alpha strike to their cash flow. 

IWI is a large and very diversified company and can absorb that kind of revenue loss; I venture to suspect that it would cause DT a world of hurt the likes of which they've never experienced.

I'm just as annoyed as everyone else at the broken commitments, but I think this kind of negative thinking is going to do no one any good, especially the end user.  The NRA Show is coming up in another week or so, and I suspect hope that we see an announcement that the rifles are shipping/have shipped/or are on the dock waiting to be shipped.
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Kurt
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« Reply #12 on: April 16, 2017, 08:41:11 PM »

if DT wanted money that badly I would think they could have just shipped the rifles sans ejection chute to get them into play and start extra revenue coming in by doing a sort of "soft launch". hell, for that matter they could have released almost ANYTHING as a version 1.0 after they had preorders in hand to justify keeping those dollars and reinvest them as opposed to holding out for a ideal finalized product knowing that delays would guarantee some returns... also, DT has been very open to those who are unhappy to get refunds so it doesn't seem that likely they are in financial straits. They have avoided any of the obvious signs of financial troubles so I would say not to worry.

Regarding the preorders by *DT* (I won't speak to the practices of individual vendors), since the product wasn't ready for shipment when the items were ordered, the money should have gone into an escrow account where it couldn't be touched until product shipped or refunds were requested.  There are other reasons to do this, income tax and sales tax issues being paramount.
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Kurt
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« Reply #13 on: April 16, 2017, 08:43:59 PM »

Playing along though, there has been a lot of interest in the platform in the last couple years so IF they become insolvent and fold there are many companies who would probably pick up the patents on the MDR, rebrand it, and make a fortune as they have the larger manufacturing processes necessary to accomplish it in a short timeframe. Imagine the same rifle being made by Keltec, Remington, or even Colt... while quality and WC would be far less than what DT is known for, they could turn them out in quantity with a short lead time to tool up.

Kel-Tec:  Ten produced per month, by month 10 the gun will already be on revision 3.

Remington:  Barrels bored off center, rifle fires if it's looked at with a "hard stare", and other than the original shipping version no additional parts will ever be made.

Colt:  Price is increased 25%, it gets pitched to everyone in the .gov and .mil communities, and the civilian market is ignored.  Then Colt goes bankrupt again.
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Kurt
kfeltenberger
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« Reply #14 on: April 16, 2017, 08:50:37 PM »

INV136 said:

Quote
You're worried about DT going into bankruptcy because people that buy their products are losing confidence in DT? Really?

Not quite. My concern is that this lack of confidence will cause many to withdraw their preorders and in doing so place DT in a situation where they have lost their funding, as it were.

Quote
They have an established clientele based on their bolt action rifles. They don't need the MDR to stay in business because they're already established in business and I have never heard anything bad about their bolt action rifles that has caused any loss in confidence. Their bolt action rifles are their bread and butter. If you based this loss in confidence on something being wrong or defective in those bolt action rifles, then yes, you might have a point.

I doubt the number of people in the market for such high priced items. Without real numbers for their income to financing the MDR ratio, no one can be so sure as you would like on this. As for the notion that an established confindence in their bolt action rifles somehow would mitigate for their behaviour in regards to the MDR, that is a false equivalence. I say again, anyone excusing the business methods of DT with the MDR is simply a sycophant. Yes, I know there are a whole class of people who would take the behaviour of the Shrike debacle as a badge of honor but I consider that to be the type of actions that enable a company to think they can use whatever business methods they want and their loyal sycophants will take it.

I realize there are some people who think its tough to complain about complainers but for those who seek to not enable behavior they dont value, it is a virtue to not sanction such behavior...



DT does more than just sell product to civilians.  For example, they recently scored a sizable contract with Brazil.  Do you know what precision rifles are in all the local PD's armories?  I'm sure that DT has seen decent police sales, though.  Just because a PD doesn't have a SWAT team doesn't mean it won't have precision rifles in the armory...my hometown's PD used the county's consolidated SWAT team (officers from all the different member departments were part of the team) and still had several very high end (~$3000-$5000 back in the late 1990s) precision rifles that were never used (but the Chief thought they were cool and so they were budgeted...).

I guess the bottom line is that there are a lot of opportunities out there that DT is probably zeroed into, so seeing their rifles in all the local gunshops isn't a good indicator of their sales.
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Kurt
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« Reply #15 on: April 17, 2017, 02:13:09 PM »

Remington:  Barrels bored off center, rifle fires if it's looked at with a "hard stare", and other than the original shipping version no additional parts will ever be made.

This legitimately made me laugh out loud - well done.

I cringe at the thought of the MDR in Kel-Tec's hands. Sure, they've got a bigger operation, but one of the most exciting things about the MDR to me is that it is NOT a Kel-Tec product, simply because I'd like to see some competition in the area of lefty-friendly .30 caliber bullpups. Currently, Kel-Tec is the ONLY company in that space.
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kfeltenberger
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« Reply #16 on: April 17, 2017, 05:37:22 PM »

Remington:  Barrels bored off center, rifle fires if it's looked at with a "hard stare", and other than the original shipping version no additional parts will ever be made.

This legitimately made me laugh out loud - well done.

In the past few days I've worked quotes from Darth Vader and Oddball into my comments, I thought it was time to channel Paddington Bear, too.   Grin
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Kurt
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« Reply #17 on: April 17, 2017, 06:05:17 PM »

well my ship date moved to may15 now
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HBeretta
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« Reply #18 on: April 17, 2017, 06:49:06 PM »

well my ship date moved to may15 now

seems to be a recurring theme in the industry...cabela's cancelled preorders for the new cz p10c that was supposed to be due out in dec, jan, feb...now pushed to june although some are swearing april still which doesn't leave much time for that reality.  oh well, nothing like shopping for other handguns to pass the time.   
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dimitry
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« Reply #19 on: April 17, 2017, 06:52:51 PM »

I somehow doubt bankruptcy is a possibility considering the fortune Desert Tech raked in with their pre-order scheme.

Considering how much money they made from the pre-order scheme, they could have lived off the interest alone. These pre-orders were basically interest-free loans given to Desert Tech to fund their R&D.
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